A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
